In 2022, Jamaica’s economy continued towards a full recovery from the fallout of the pandemic. This was, however, tempered by high inflation which presented policymakers with the difficult trade-off of taming price increases against slowing the pace of the recovery.

Government’s fiscal position remained positive during fiscal year (FY) 2022/23. Public debt as a ratio to gross domestic product (GDP) declined as the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) pursue its policy agenda of reaching 60% of GDP by FY 2027/28. Despite risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated price levels and monetary policy tightening, Jamaica’s financial system was profitable, liquid, and well capitalised. After recording a current account deficit in 2021, a surplus was posted in 2022 due to increase travel receipts.

Prospects for growth in 2023 are positive. Output, however, is expected to decelerate and return to prepandemic levels. This outlook rests on the strong performance of the tourism sector and higher output from mining and quarrying. Inflation is expected to gradually approach its target in 2023, while the debt and fiscal scenarios are expected to improve further given GOJ’s commitment to macro-fiscal stability. The outlook is, nonetheless, overshadowed by several risks, including continued monetary policy tightening and stubborn inflation.