The Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 20071, indicates that for the Caribbean, climate change impacts could include precipitation pattern changes that are likely to increase pests and diseases and significantly threaten agricultural productivity and human health. In the latter case, this could involve changes to the distribution of diseases such as dengue and the re-emergence of malaria in some countries. Predictions also include increases in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological hazards such as extreme rainfall events, drought, and hurricanes, for these countries, considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable to natural hazards. Regional climate researchers using existing digitised, archived, daily observational meteorological datasets have already documented changes in the climate of the Caribbean Region that show findings consistent with globally observed trends.
Improved monitoring and data analysis of Caribbean coral reefs led researchers to conclude that sea surface temperatures are now at the upper tolerance threshold for key coral formations, and bleaching has been linked to warm episodes above this threshold. Climate change and variability is therefore likely to further exacerbate environmental degradation and pollution of the relatively fragile and sensitive small island ecosystems.