The Country Economic Review Mid-Year Update 2019 contains CDB’s revised summary assessment of economic performance in 2018 for each of the Caribbean Development Bank’s (CDB) 19 Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs), as well as new forecasts for 2019.

The Mid-Year Updates for 2018 were based on the provision of more up-to-date data on performance in different sectors available in July 2019. Overall growth was 2.0%, compared to 0.7% in 2017. In 2018, all BMCs, with the exception of Barbados, experienced positive economic growth, largely driven by construction and improved tourism performance. The highest rates of growth were experienced in Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic performance in the Caribbean continues to be set against a background of increasing global economic uncertainty. Trade tensions between the United States of America and China have been rising; and uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit continues. There is a possibility of United States sanctions affecting global supply chains; and rising geopolitical tensions have implications for energy prices. While the United States economy continues to grow, some commentators are concerned that this may not last. As small open economies, BMCs are likely to be affected by all these developments.

Despite these concerns, CDB continues to project positive economic growth for the Region. CDB is making upward revisions to its 2019 forecasts for seven BMCs (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Dominica, Guyana, Jamaica, and Montserrat), and downward revisions for five (Grenada, Haiti, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago). Most of the upward revisions reflect better than expected first quarter data, particularly in tourism and construction. Of the downward revisions, weaker projected energy production is a contributor in Trinidad and Tobago, and fuel shortages have contributed to an uncertain investment climate in Haiti. There is no change in CDB’s projections for eight BMCs, including Barbados, where contraction in the early part of the year is expected to be counteracted by improved activity in the rest of the year. Further details on each BMC are provided in the following sections.