The Caribbean’s economic performance remained subdued in 2025, shaped by stable global growth but heightened geopolitical uncertainty, evolving trade and tariff policies, intensifying climate impacts, and persistent domestic structural challenges.

Excluding Guyana, regional growth slowed to 0.6% from 1.4% in 2024, reflecting weaker activity across most of the Caribbean Development Bank’s 19 Borrowing Member Countries. Including Guyana, regional growth reached 4.7%, down from 8.3% the previous year, with Guyana continuing to be the region’s main growth driver.

Commodity-exporting economies recorded mixed results. Suriname benefited from offshore energy-related investment, while Trinidad and Tobago experienced flat growth amid weakness in both energy and non-energy sectors. Service-exporting economies also saw slower growth as tourism momentum eased, source-market conditions weakened, and climate-related disruptions affected activity, particularly in Jamaica and Haiti. Haiti’s economy contracted for the seventh consecutive year due to ongoing insecurity and instability.

Labour market conditions remained relatively stable, with unemployment declining in most countries, although youth and gender disparities persisted alongside labour shortages. Inflation moderated across the region, helped by lower global commodity prices, but remained above pre-pandemic levels.

Fiscal performance was mixed. Regional primary surpluses narrowed, debt levels remained elevated in several countries, and external balances came under pressure as merchandise trade deficits widened. However, most economies maintained adequate international reserves, while financial sectors remained resilient due to strong capitalisation, liquidity, and ongoing regulatory reforms.

Looking ahead, regional growth is expected to remain modest in 2026 at 1.1% excluding Guyana, and 6.2% including Guyana, driven largely by continued expansion in Guyana’s oil sector. Risks from slower global growth, geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, commodity price volatility, and fiscal vulnerabilities continue to weigh on the outlook.

Accelerating reform implementation and strengthening institutional and project execution capacity will be essential to lifting long-term growth, enhancing resilience, and advancing the region’s development ambitions.