Economic performance across the Caribbean remained subdued in 2025 as global uncertainty, climate shocks, and domestic structural challenges weighed on growth, according to the latest edition of the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB / the Bank) flagship publication, Caribbean Economic Review and Outlook 2025-2026.

The report finds that regional growth, excluding Guyana, slowed to 0.6% in 2025 from 1.4% in 2024 as activity weakened across most of the Bank’s 19 Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs). Including Guyana, regional growth was 4.7%, down from 8.3% in 2024, with Guyana continuing to be the primary driver of regional performance.

Caribbean economies faced heightened geopolitical uncertainty, evolving trade and tariff policies, weaker external demand, and intensifying climate-related disruptions during the year. Tourism activity continued to support growth, albeit at a slower pace in several service-exporting economies, while commodity exporters recorded mixed performances.

Suriname experienced moderate growth supported by offshore energy-related investment, while Trinidad and Tobago saw flat growth amid weakness in both the energy and non-energy sectors. Jamaica and Haiti were affected by climate-related disruptions, including Hurricane Melissa, which dampened economic activity and tourism demand. Haiti’s economy contracted for the seventh consecutive year as insecurity continued to suppress growth.

Despite slower economic activity, labour market conditions remained broadly stable across the region, with unemployment declining in most reporting BMCs. However, longstanding youth and gender disparities persisted, alongside labour shortages in some sectors.

Inflation also moderated across the region, supported by lower global commodity prices, although it remained above pre-pandemic levels in most economies.

The report further highlights that fiscal performance across the region was mixed. Excluding Guyana, the regional primary surplus narrowed to 1.3% of GDP in 2025 from 1.6% in 2024, reflecting slower revenue growth and rising expenditure pressures. Debt levels remained elevated in several economies, with nine BMCs recording central government debt-to-GDP ratios above 60%.

Meanwhile, financial sectors remained broadly stable, supported by adequate capitalisation, high liquidity, strengthened credit growth, and continued regulatory reforms.

Looking ahead, the report projects that regional growth excluding Guyana will remain subdued at 1.1% in 2026. Including Guyana, growth is expected to rise to 6.2%, largely reflecting continued expansion in Guyana’s oil sector.

However, the outlook remains clouded by significant downside risks, including slower global growth, geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, climate shocks, and fiscal vulnerabilities.

“While the Caribbean continues to demonstrate resilience, the region’s growth prospects remain constrained by external uncertainty, climate-related shocks, and longstanding structural challenges,” said Christine Dawson, CDB’s Acting Director of Economics. “Strengthening institutions, accelerating reforms, and improving project execution will be critical to unlocking higher, more inclusive, and more sustainable growth across the region.”

The full Caribbean Economic Review and Outlook 2025-2026 report is available on the Caribbean Development Bank’s website.

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